The other day I mentioned that we got a positive pregnancy test. I believe (this technical details are not 100% certain) that the test was a quantitative assay for hCG, and that the numerical result was 120.07 mIU/mL. Following this result we were instructed to come back in for a follow-on test today. The doctors were hoping to see an 80-100% increase in this level in the 48 hours between tests. This near-doubling would nail down the "is she pregnant?" question for sure and certain.
(In addition, this rate of change is commonly used to check for ectopic pregnancy. In our case an ectopic pregnancy is very unlikely; 98% of ectopics occur in the fallopian tubes, which Sarah doesn't have.)
As you might imagine, this post exists to report the result of the follow on test. Drawn this morning, Sarah's blood contains 383.75 mIU/mL hCG. (Again, the unit is somewhat uncertain, but the number is right.) That's well more than a doubling; in fact it's slightly more than a tripling in 48 hours (an increase of 220%, to be precise).
Now, I know your next question, and the answer is: yes, high [hCG] levels and a high rate of increase in [hCG] can indeed suggest the presence of twins. That said, as an indicator this is highly imperfect. The basic problem appears to be that individual variance is very high, so even very wide divergence from the 48hr doubling may simply be individual "noise" rather than a twinning "signal". That said, these test results are definitely adding dramatic tension to the time from now until the ultrasound on the 15th.
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